
If you have been reading my articles on the Walsall property market, you will see that in the three years since the referendum we have proved beyond doubt that ‘Brexit’ has had no effect on the Walsall property market (or the UK as a whole).
So one might ask, what does affect the property market locally? Well many things on the demand side include wages, job security, interest rates, availability of mortgages, confidence in the economy, inflation, speculative demand … the list goes on. Yet as my blog reading friends will note, I like to delve deeper into the numbers which has led me to find an interesting correlation between unemployment and the number of properties sold (i.e. transactions).
Why transaction levels and not house prices? Well just looking at Walsall house prices as a leading indicator has flaws. Many property market commentators and economists believe transaction numbers (the number of properties sold) give a more accurate and truthful indicator of the health of the property market than just house values alone. The reason is twofold. First most people when they sell also buy, so if property values have dropped by 10% or risen by 10% on the one you are selling, it would have done the same on the one you are buying – meaning to judge the health of a property market is very one dimensional. Secondly…
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